When it comes to following state and local health directives, some are better at it than others, as the rates for activity during the spring “shutdown” show listed at the Wisconsin Policy Forum’s Data Tool. The good news—or bad, depending upon your personal beliefs—is that Pierce County is relatively compliant when it comes to listening to government officials who ask for them to obey public health measures meant to fight disease spread.

In early March, Governor Tony Evers decided to close schools as of March 18 in order to help “flatten the curve” for coronavirus cases statewide and keep hospital beds open. Activity plummeted statewide as a result. After the Stay-At-Home “Order” in late March, this ticked back up somewhat, with Dane, Shawano, Vilas, Waukesha, and Ozaukee as notable holdouts—never mind Milwaukee. They weren’t much different from the rest of the state, packed together as they are movement-wise. So what are the regional numbers for obedience to state health directives?

Starting out in Pierce County locally, the numbers at the Wisconsin Policy Forum show a two percent increase in county-wide movement over the previous year as of March 9, 2020. For Pepin County, meanwhile, the movement rate for March 9, 2020 was five percent above the baseline rate from March 9 of 2019. Shifting north to St. Croix County, Wisconsin, the rate for March 9 was a positive two percent above the movement rate for a year previous, while in Dun it was a positive four percent above 2019 and in Eau Claire just one percent above the year previous.

Moving a week forward on the county movement data table, Pierce County saw a drop for March 16, 2020 totaling out at 23 percent to fall 21 points below the baseline for 2019 movement at the same time. For Pepin County, the drop was 22 percentage points to 17 percent below baseline, while for St. Croix County the drop was 24 points to 22 percent below baseline movement from the year before. Dunn County saw a 19 percent drop to come out 15 percent below baseline for March 16, 2020, and Eau Claire dropped twenty percent to come out at 19 percent below baseline for the same time period.

Moving ahead yet another week to March 23, 2020, the numbers were 32 percent below 2019 movement baseline for Pierce County, 29 percent below for Pepin County, 34 percent below for St. Croix County, 27 percent below for Dunn County and 27 percent below for Eau Claire County. Then Governor Evers made a Stay-At-Home Order down in Madison, and something counterintuitive happened: the countywide movement numbers went UP.

Although it’s important to note that “correlation is not causation” (i.e. a demonstrable relationship between two things does NOT mean that one caused the other), the movement rebound numbers for March 30 are as follows.

In the first place, movement for Pierce County as measured against the year previous rebounded by four percent to come out 28 points below baseline, while in Pepin County the rebound was steeper by a full ten points, to come out 19 points below the baseline from 2019. For St. Croix County the rebound was four percent to come out 30 percent below normal for the year previous. Eau Claire and Dunn both rebounded by six percentage points to come out at 21 percent below travel math as of March 30, 2019.

Leaping forward in April and Spring, Pierce County movement increased by four percent to twenty-four percent below baseline, while in Pepin County the increase was one percent, to 18 points below baseline. St. Croix County saw an uptick of five percent to come out 25 percent below 2019 activity levels for April 6, while Dunn County registered a two percent increase to reach 19 percent below baseline and Eau Claire County registered a one percent increase to come out at 20 percent below 2019 activity levels.

Jumping forward another week to April 13, activity levels continued to increase, with Pierce County registering a sixpoint increase to come out at 18 percent below baseline and Pepin County registering a two percent increase to come out at 16 percent below baseline. For St. Croix County the increase was six percent to 19 percent below baseline, with Dunn rising by seven percent to 12 percent below 2019 levels and Eau Claire rising five percent to come out 15 percent below the previous year’s movement for the county.

Regarding the week of April 20, the numbers were 11 percent below baseline for Pierce, four percent below for Pepin (a twelve-point jump from the previous week), ten percent below baseline for St. Croix, five percent below for Dunn, and six percent below for Eau Claire.

For the week of April 27, meanwhile, the numbers were eight percent below baseline for Pierce, four percent below for Pepin, eight percent below for St. Croix, two percent below for Dunn, and four percent below for Eau Claire.

Closing out the comparison in regional movement figures for the Stay-At-Home Order with May 4, the numbers are instructive.

For Pierce, the numbers hold flat from the week before at eight percent below movement for the same period in 2019, while for Pepin the week of May 4 ends in a tie, with the activity graph reaching baseline level from 2019. St. Croix County dropped a percentage point from the week previous to come out at nine percent below baseline, while Dunn and Eau Claire Counties both dropped three percent, to come out at five below and seven below the 2019 baseline for each county respectively. With cold weather soon to drive Wisconsin residents indoors where the novel coronavirus is thought to spread best, and with flu season fast approaching also, the prospect of a second wave as happened in 1918 is very real. Stay safe Pierce County, and remember: it only takes one care-fee coronavirus carrier, to make life miserable for a whole classroom or just meeting full of people. Will that be you?