To the editor,

One of the major themes of the presidential campaign has been a series of attack ads aimed at the Harris candidacy blaming her for rampant inflation. Undoubtedly inflation has been a difficult economic problem to control. As the pandemic intensified a perfect storm of forces contributed to rapidly rising prices. They included pent up demand chasing limited goods due to supply chain problems, the Russian attack on Ukraine and its impact on world agricultural and oil markets, a business opportunity to increase prices above increased costs (gouging), and large government stimulus packages. It is the stimulus packages in which Harris had major involvement as her vote broke the tie on two of the four bills that are often referred to as "Bidenomics.”

Economic data may be helpful to judge the success or failure attributed to the Biden/Harris Administration, regarding inflation and the cost of living. First, according to the Consumer Price Index inflation had been low for two decades.

Inflation as compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics: (BLS) at the end of each presidency provides an example:

2008 Bush II 3.2%

2016 Obama 1.3%

2020 Trump 1.2%

The current inflation rate increase cycle started under Trump in May 2020. It reached its peak under Biden in June 2022, at 9.1% (YoY). That same month wages grew at 6.7%  for a  -2.4%  loss in real wages. That was the worst month under Biden/Harris. The Inflation Reduction Act was passed aug. 16, 2022 (Harris broke the tie), inflation was at 8.3% and has decreased every month since it took effect. By April 2024, wage growth was 6% and inflation 4.1% for a positive 1.9% wage growth. For comparison, the worst real wage result occurred in March 2020, under Trump when inflation was only 1.5% but wage growth was a negative -5.87% for a net loss in real wages of -4.37%. Real wages went into the positive column against inflation in February 2023. The best month under Biden to date was June 2023, with a positive 2.6% gain in real wages. Wages vs inflation have been in a positive column for the past 19 months, and according to the nonpartisan Economic Policy Institute have increased a net average of $16,700 which is $3,800 above average inflation impact under Biden/Harris. (A point of opinion, Trump's attack ads sarcastically state about inflation, "Thanks Kamala!" The irony is perhaps we should!)

Interest rates: Under Trump mortgage rates and consumer borrowing reached a two decade historical low at 2.65%. Under Biden interest rates rose as an attempt to slow inflation related to stimulus policy to 7.79%. These rates are high over the past 20 years, but not historically extreme, as mortgage rates were as high as 13% in 1980, and at a similar 7.41% in 1971. Interest rate fluctuation always has winners and losers. For instance, it is negative for home buyers, construction, consumer credit users and business start-ups, while CD investors, low credit users and lending institutions receive a positive impact.

It appears that both the economic downturns at the end of the Trump and beginning of the Biden administrations were deeply connected to the pandemic recession, foreign war pressures on the world economy, and supply chain anomalies. However, the current economic trends since the stimulus money in the bipartisan PPP, (Trump), and the bipartisan infrastructure (Biden) and inflation reduction act (passed by congressional Democrats under Biden) have resulted in a steady economic recovery since January 2021.

Ron Ginsbach

Elmwood