To the editor,

The number of political ads has reached such a crescendo that investigation of the claims to determine the level of accuracy/truth is somewhat overwhelming. However, there is another approach that may provide clarity to the claims and counter claims. That is to contribute researched and documented raw data that addresses some of the campaign claims. The performance of the economy is a dominant theme of much of the presidential campaign rhetoric, therefore, that seems like a relevant subject in which to make presidential administration comparisons and provide historical perspective.

According to Investopedia and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the following represents unemployment records at the end of each administration on Dec. 31, of the last year of the most recent presidencies:

2008 unemployment rate 7.3% Bush II/Cheney

2016 4.1% Obama/Biden

2020 6.7% Trump/Pence  

As of Oct 1, 2024, 4.1% Biden/Harris  

BLS analyzed job growth by presidential term from 1948 to the present. (Margin for error is + or - .2%). The two top performing tenures are Lyndon Johnson's at 3.8% and to date, Joe Biden's at 4.1%.  The two worst are George W. Bush's at .2% and Donald J Trump's at -.6%. The 74-year average result by party control has the Democratic average at 2.7% and the Republican average at 1%.

The stock market as compiled by the DJIA, including percentage of positive or negative change:

2008 – 17.7k Bush II; took office during a growth period but left during a recession.

2016 – 22.6k +27% Obama; took office during a recession left office during market growth.

2020 – 30.1 k  + 33%  Trump; took office during growth left during pandemic induced recession (low of 15.1k, March 20, 2020)

2024 – 41.3k  + 37% (to date Oct. 1, 2024) Biden; took office during pandemic induced recession, currently the economy is in a positive growth pattern.

From the US Bureau of Economic Management from 1960 until 2023, average wage growth was 6.2% (includes all earners and is skewed by salary growth of CEOs). The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta provides a "Wage Tracker" source that provides a similar analysis.

The last 120 readings of average wages goes back to 2014 and found:

That between 2014 and 2016 under Obama the 6% growth mark was attained six times by January 2016. During the Trump administration the readings, using the same matrix, never reached 6% between 2016 and 2020. Average wages decreased below 0 gain three times the worst being in March of 2020 at a -5.87%. From January 2021 to Dec. 31, 2023 under Biden the reading reached 6% all but four times. Wages grew at a peak of 15.4% in April 2021, largely induced by stimulus money and pandemic recovery. During 2024 it has not reached 6% and has been in the 4.2% to 5.2% range. 

The information provided here represents about one third of the presidential campaign relevant economic statistical data. With the editor's indulgence, analysis of inflation, GDP, GNP, farm commodities and national debt will be provided in future submissions by others who have helped research this information. Hopefully, such information is useful in interpreting the creditability of campaign ads and internet chatter.

Ron Ginsbach

Elmwood