RIVER FALLS – According to a community growth and student enrollment projections report, River Falls School District can expect to need more elementary school space by 2035.

Nick Johnson of MDRoffers Consulting presented the report to the River Falls School Board at its Feb. 20 meeting. The company, based in Madison, works with school districts and municipalities as urban planners all across Wisconsin. The school board commissioned a demographic study, said Board President Stacy Johnson Myers.

“Over the past decade, we’ve seen increasing enrollment in the River Falls School District, especially at the middle and high school level,” Johnson said.

Over 10 years, the district has grown by 364 students in grades 4K-12. This includes four in 4K, 48 in 5K-5, 125 in grades 6-8, and 187 in grades 9-12.

According to Johnson, the total RFSD population grew by 8% from 2010 to 2020, mostly people ages 50 and older. The population of residents ages 5-19 grew by 288 residents, which corresponds with increasing enrollment, using US Census data. People ages 25-44 increased by 21 residents from 2010 to 2020.

“RFSD births remained fairly stable over the past decade, explaining only a modest increase in 4K-5 enrollment,” Johnson said.

The district saw significant housing construction in its boundaries over the last decade: 1,650 new housing units permitted with 63% of those being single-family homes. Sevent percent were built in the city, 20% in the town of Troy, and 10% in other townships.

However, the building pace has accelerated the last few years, Johnson said. In 2020, 300+ new housing units were built, including 100 single-family homes. In 2021, 130 housing units went up and in 2022 through October, 215 housing units were constructed.  

“Different housing types produce different numbers of students in a district,” Johnson said. “New single-family homes typically produce the most students. Townhomes, apartments, condominiums, they produce the fewest.”

The company sent a survey to 300 new homes in the district, Johnson said. On average, half a student is produced from one single-family home.

“Which is not as much as some people would think,” Johnson said.

According to their calculations, 100 single family homes would produce 55 students and 12 students for a 100-unit apartment building (new). Older apartments tend to be more affordable for families, so generate about 23 students per 100 units.

“Housing turnover is not always translating to student enrollment increases,” Johnson said. “Single-family homes tend to produce the most students in the first 10 years after being built; afterwards, the number of students tends to decrease until about a 30-year timeframe, when that housing turns over to new families.”

New families moving in aren’t necessarily bringing children with them either, Johnson said.

How did they figure it out?

Johnson and his colleagues dividing RFSD into 64 neighborhoods based on school attendance areas, subdivisions, major roads, rivers, railroad and other barriers. They allocated housing units by neighborhood for Fall 2022 and applied RFSD student addresses to calculate current student-per-housing unit ratios for each grade group and each neighborhood, using permitting data from the towns and Census data.

Then they analyzed demographic changes within each neighborhood and future housing expectations, using community plans, recent and pending developments and discussions with local planners and real estate experts.

They projected the housing growth for 2024, 2027, 2030 and 2035, along with student-per-housing unit ratios for each neighborhood, projection year and grade group.

“Then it really becomes a math problem,” Johnson said.

They multiplied projected housing units by student-per-housing unit ratios for each grade group in each neighborhood to arrive at RFSD resident student enrollment projections. They then assigned projected resident students to each school and RFSD program, including Montessori and Renaissance.

Housing projections

Johnson projected 2,800 housing units will be built in RFSD by 2035 (that’s about 215 per year); 39% are projected to be single-family homes, which is down from 63% over the last 10 years. Over 80% of that new housing will be within city limits, whereas 26% of that will be single-family homes. The remaining will be mostly in the northern townships of RFSD, Troy and Kinnickinnic, all single-family.

Johnson said the city will see more and more multi-family housing, due to:

• Recent success of multi-family projects such as Milltown Residences and Peregrine Terrace Apartments. They were filled up immediately and have low vacancy rates.
• City support for multi-family developments, redeveloping older areas of the city and in new neighborhoods.
• Locations with good regional access.
• Housing shortage plus higher interest rates equals greater demand for multi-family housing. Enough homes haven’t built to keep up with demand since the great recession.
• Generational shifts, finances and preferences

Development seems to be concentrated on the northern edge of the city, along the Highway 35/Radio Road corridors, Johnson said. He projected over 1,000 housing units in that area through 2035. Just over half of new housing units will be located in the Westside Elementary attendance area with 1,483, Greenwood with 836 and Rocky Branch with 481.

“What happens in existing housing also has a major impact on enrollment,” Johnson added.

They analyzed characteristics of existing neighborhoods that contribute to projected resident enrollment changes, including home sales, mix of housing types, changes in student-per-housing unit ratios between 2017 and 2022, and neighborhood/housing age.

Enrollment projections

Between now and 2035, the district can expect an increase of 417 4K-12 residents, or an additional 32 students per year, on average.

• Grade 4K at community partner sites: +57 students
• 4K-5: +275 students (increasing number of births from millennials, people moving into the district, new housing brings more families)
• Grades 6-8: +55 students with stable enrollment through 2030 due to smaller current 5K-5 grades.
• Grades 9-12: +30 students with stable enrollment through 2030.

These numbers should hold if private schooling, open enrollment-out and home schooling remain at constant rates, Johnson said. This does not include students open-enrolling in.

He then compared housing and student enrollment projections to school district building capacities. The district will exceed combined elementary school capacity by 70 students by 2035. The current capacity is 1,537 students. Johnson expect the capacity issues to affect Greenwood and Westside elementary schools. Meyer Middle and River Falls High School should remain below capacity if open enrollment numbers do not increase.

Johnson summarized his findings by saying:

• Without changes, Greenwood and Westside will have capacity issues within the next 10 years.
• Shifting Sterling Ponds from Rocky Branch to either Greenwood or Westside would cause either of those schools to exceed capacity even sooner and may challenge a long-term solution.
• Some districts realign group gradings to deal with capacity issues, but shifting fifth graders from the elementary schools to MMS would push that building well above its capacity.

Projected elementary school capacity issues could be addressed by expanding one or more of the elementary schools, building a fifth elementary school (accompanied by attendance area shifts), or another not yet thought-of solution, he said.  

School capacity would ideally be expanded to close to enrollment hot spots, which are expected to be along the northern portions of the city and in the Highview Meadows area.

“The district owns 37 acres on the west side of the city, but it’s far from the projected hot spots and surrounded by land slated to be used for industrial businesses,” Johnson said. “It’s also less than 1 mile from Westside and the Montessori. That site might be better suited for a second middle school at some point. The district could explore selling that land and acquiring land in the northern part of the city.”

Other factors to consider include school condition, age, learning environment, site area, location, walkability, and importance to nearby neighborhoods. Johnson recommended that RFSD consider a long-range facilities planning process, which includes exploring a range of options.

“As I see this, our enrollment is going to be pretty steady for the next 10 years,” said board member Alan Tuchtenhagen. “Slight changes could really alter this. A change in the economy, we’ve talked about this before, that we think the birth rate is kind of down because the economy is a little uncertain right now and young families maybe are delaying having kids. A change in the economy could bring a baby boomlet in this town or it could just stay the way it is.”

Tuchtenhagen said it would be easier to build a new elementary school than redraw boundaries, which usually brings “a lot of high emotions.”

Wildcat Pride awards

The board presented Wildcat Pride awards to RFHS students Brooks Rivard and Luke Linehan for their heroic gesture on Dec. 23, 2022.

“You stopped to help rescue a stranded River Falls family, strangers that you have no connection with on a cold, snowy night,” said board member Todd Schultz. “Your help prevented a substantial accident from becoming a terrible tragedy. On behalf of Lily, Bridget and Mike, as well as the entire River Falls community, thank you for being outstanding citizens and a valued member of our community.”

Another award went to Restorative Services Community Circle facilitator Kelvin Pooler, who provides support for Renaissance students.

“Thanks to you, our students have received much needed clothing and homemade meals,” said Schultz. “As a Restorative Services Community Circle facilitator, you have also provided our students with a safe place to share their experiences, hardships, and dreams without judgment. You are there to celebrate student successes and listen when students are facing tough situations. You make time for everyone and lead by example. All of our days are brighter when you come to the Renaissance.”

Renaissance Chris Silver said kids wait at the door for Pooler and can’t wait to see him.

“He treats them if it’s their birthday, he going to bring in cupcakes and he loves to celebrate with us,” Silver said.