RF in need of more senior housing

RIVER FALLS – According to an update to the 2018 Comprehensive Housing Needs Analysis, the City of River Falls needs even more housing than originally laid out in the original study.

City Planner Sam Burns presented the updated study to the River Falls City Council Dec. 13. Conducted by Maxfield Research and Consulting LLC, the analysis provides updated data after four years that included a pandemic, historic market trends and the completion of the 2020 Census.

“The importance of a healthy supply of housing options cannot be understated,” Burns said. “A healthy supply keeps prices reasonable and provides options in a fair and competitive market. It’s projected that we need to be building more per year in 2022 than we did in 2018.”

This is largely due to two factors, Burns said: Despite a historic number of units permitted, the city did not build enough in four years to keep up with demand. Secondly, outside forces increased the demand for units in River Falls.

“River Falls is an excellent community and people want to live here,” he added.

Since 2010, River Falls gained an estimated 1,582 people (10.5% growth) and 754 households (14.6% growth). The pace of household growth was high relative to population growth, which suggests a trend toward shrinking household sizes.

“This trend reflects a general shift in demographic factors that favor smaller households, such as growth in single-person households, as well as an aging household base,” the analysis states.

River Falls is projected to add an estimated 518 people (3.1%) and 287 households (4.9%).

Based on age distribution projections for River Falls, the largest demand is expected to be strongest for senior housing and move-up ownership housing.

“We find demand for 698 senior housing units in River Falls in 2022, increasing to 781 units in 2027. This level of senior housing demand (particularly market rate active adult) may not be realized in the short-term as many seniors, especially in rural areas, prefer to age in place and delay moving to senior housing until they need services. By comparison, the 2018 Housing Needs Analysis projected demand for 571 senior housing units in 2022,” the update states.

“The overall numbers make it clear that we need more senior housing in the community,” Burns said. “It’s important to build more units for the current cohort of seniors, but the current generation of seniors is much larger than the generation that will follow.”

Senior housing no longer needed could be made into market rate rentals or other housing units, Burns said.

Pricing

According to the analysis, the median resale price for a detached single-family home sold in the City of River Falls was $357,000 as of August 2022. Assuming that a potential home buyer has good credit and makes a 10% down payment, a household would need to have a minimum annual income of roughly $108,158 to be income-qualified for a home purchased at the median resale price.

If a buyer has good credit and makes a 10% down payment, a household earning the average weekly wage in Pierce County would be able to afford to purchase a home priced at approximately $140,000 or lower to not be cost-burdened (paying more than 30% of their income for housing), the analysis states. A household earning the average weekly wage in St. Croix County could afford to purchase a home priced at $165,000.

In 2022, detached single- family homes sold after an average of 39 days on market (through August) in River Falls, while multi-family housing units sold quicker, averaging 21 days on the market.

The median resale price for detached single-family homes increased 46% since 2017, expanding at an average annual rate of 9.1% over the past five years. However, pricing increases accelerated to 15.4% in 2020 and 15.9% in 2021.

Median resale prices for multi-family (i.e. townhomes, condominiums) for-sale housing product types in River Falls experienced faster growth, increasing 69% since 2017. Over the past five years, median multi-family resale prices have increased at an average rate of 10.0% per year, including a 22.6% jump in 2021.

Number of units

From 2010 through 2021, 1,162 new housing units were permitted in the City of River Falls, for an average of 97 new units per year.

Approximately 57% of the permitted housing units since 2010 in River Falls were for single-family homes (657 units), while 43% were for multi-family units (505 units).

Between 2010 and 2018, 77% of the permitted units were single-family homes (444 total units), while 23% were multi-family (131 units). Multi-family development activity has accelerated since 2018, representing 64% of all units permitted in River Falls from 2019 through 2021, while 36% were single-family units.

Based on the January 2022 Building Inspections Dashboard from the City of River Falls, there are 100 vacant residential lots in the City for future housing development, Burns said.

As of August 2022, the study identified nine pending housing developments in River Falls, with a total of 728 new housing units.

Three projects, totaling 141 units are under construction, and one other 32-unit project has been approved and is expected to move forward. Another 555 units in six projects are proposed and in various stages of the planning approval process.

There are 88 senior housing units under construction at Sycamore Senior Living which includes 84 service-enhanced units (38 independent living, 30 assisted living, 16 memory care units) and four market rate active adult rental units.

There are 42 general occupancy market rate rental townhomes under construction at Dawes Place Phase I and 32 market rate apartment units at Lake George Lofts that have been approved. Another 101-unit market rate apartment project (Paulson Road Apartments) and a 190unit rental townhome development have been proposed.

There are also 275 for-sale housing units/lots pending in River Falls.

The 11-unit Wasson Townhome development is under construction.

There are 93 detached single-family lots proposed at the Apollo Road Subdivision.

Three proposed projects (Thompson Property South, Dawes Place Phase II, and the Apollo Road Subdivision) contain lots for 171 twin homes.

The study anticipates a demand for 402 detached single-family homes and 216 multifamily units in River Falls between 2022 and 2030.

Burns also spoke about the city’s vacancy rate, which he described as “critically low.” In 2018, the vacancy rate was 1.2%; in 2022, it is 0.7%. According to the study, a healthy vacancy rate has a range of 5 to 7%. As for the for-sale housing supply, the current supply stands at 1.6 months; a healthy supply would be six months.

Alderperson Jeff Bjork pointed out a number of errors in the report, but didn’t elaborate on them.

One of his concerns is that more than 27% of the population is over 55. He spoke about the number of homes built in Hudson west of the industrial park, which brought very few new children to the district.

“I think we need to be a little cautious of how fast and how we want to grow things too, because I don’t think it’s maybe as prevalent as we think,” Bjork said. “The number of people under age 20 has only increased by 3% in 22 years.”

Other business

Alderpersons Alyssa Mueller and Nick Carow were absent from the meeting.

The council approved a change to the official traffic control map, adding a stop sign at State Street and Hamilton Drive.

Bjork thanked Public Works Director Mike Stifter for his years of service. He will be leaving the city to be closer to his parents in Hutchinson, Minn.

The council convened into closed session to discuss White Ridge Corporate Park Lot C.